Horse Racing Speed Duels – Opportunity or Disaster?

By: JT

Pace handicapping is based on the principle that horses will behave according to their inherent nature. One of the ways the handicapper can take advantage of this principal is to understand how horses run. It is generally accepted that front running horses must be at the head of the pack and will struggle to gain and maintain a lead. The more front runners in the race, the stiffer the competition on the lead. This can be an interesting phenomenon, and one that the savvy handicapper can turn to his advantage.

Where one talented frontrunner in a race will be in a great position to win, two frontrunners make the issue more complicated, and three frontrunners make a speed duel a likely scenario. Let me explain how speed duels work.

Two Front Running Horses

When you have two early pace horses running in a race, they will essentially create a mini-race within the competition, running against each other until one of them defeats the other or the weaker horse gives up. Frequently the better horse wins, and the second horse fades, particularly if the competition is fierce. In the second likely scenario, both frontrunners are evenly matched and become so exhausted from their mini-race that they fall prey to a mid-pack horse that has been conserving its energy and overtakes the exhausted animals, often in the stretch.

The guessing game for the handicapper is in deciding which is the most likely scenario, and knowing that, which horse provides the best value for the wager. In these matchups, good condition, solid class, and experience at the distance are valuable attributes.

Three Front Running Horses

If you add another dedicated frontrunner to the scenario above, there is a good chance that the competition among the three horses will exhaust two or even all three contenders. When this happens, they may all fail, often badly.

What results is a race in which the horse with the most in reserve wins. Sometimes it´s a strong mid-pack contender who is in good condition and has some experience with longer distances. Occasionally all the early and mid-pack horses become so compromised by the fast pace that a late runner comes from behind to win.

This kind of matchup can be dramatic and exciting to watch, with a lone horse coming from the back of the pack and passing exhausted competitors like they´re standing still. When late runners win races, it´s often at spectacular odds.

How do you play this type of race? If there is no clearly superior early pace horse, look at the strongest mid-pack contender. If he´s good at the distance and is inclined to stay well off the lead in most of his races, consider him. If there are no good mid-pack contenders, look for a late running horse that has a history of recent races in which he´s finished in the top four.

Races where a very fast early pace is a factor can be challenging, but they also provide a remarkable opportunity for profit.

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