The Advantages of Knowing About a Sure Thing – and not Betting it

By: JT

One out of every six races is won by the second favorite in the lineup. Really. While you are lamenting the plummeting odds on the favorite, your favorite, check the odds on the horse you think most likely to place second. Sometimes there´s such a feeding frenzy to bet on a great thing, the real deal is ignored, or at least ignored enough to make it a good wagering opportunity. Every day races are run at the major tracks in which the second favorite wins – big.

If a horse is an overwhelming favorite, other good horses in the race are under bet. This can mean good value and potential profit. Winning at the track is all about finding value. Because you are competing against other bettors, your ability to see opportunities others don´t becomes your edge. The potential in an under bet horse is in correctly gauging his chance of doing well. How do you do that? Find a good reason why the frontrunner might fail.

Finding Chinks in the Frontrunner´s Armour

Good horses develop betting momentum as the race approaches. Sometimes this is based on merit; sometimes it´s misguided hype. The way to tell the difference is to look for weaknesses in the horse everyone loves. If you can find them, bet the next best option.

Drops in Class
Horses go up and down in class all the time, and betting on class-drops is an accepted handicapping strategy. One thing you should ask yourself before you bet on that great deal, though, is whether or not getting something for nothing has ever really worked for you? Wagering on horses dropping in class can be profitable; it can also lead to spectacular losses. If a horse is dropping in class more than a couple of thousand dollars and hasn´t made a track change, maybe that horse everybody loves isn´t such a great deal.

Layoffs
It was once widely accepted that horses just back from a hiatus needed a couple of races to get acclimated. Recently, this long held assumption has been called into question. What you should really be asking yourself on a case-by-case basis is: What´s the deal with this horse? If he hasn´t shown well coming back from a layoff in the past, and this is his first or second race after a layoff, this could indicate a weakness.

Track Changes
Track changes should raise some question marks in your mind. Many wagerers become experts about their track and its cadre of horses. New horses are sometimes underestimated, or overestimated depending on the hype that comes along with them. Changing locations and then racing soon afterward can be a problem for some horses. This can be doubly true if long distances are involved.

Check the background of favorites that have changed tracks for today´s race. How have they reacted to other similar changes, and how does their previous track compare to today´s venue? If a popular frontrunner has potential track issues, an alternate betting strategy may be in order.

A horse´s past performance is an invaluable indicator of what you can reasonably expect from him. You can apply this principle to evaluating track changes, jockeys, class changes, equipment modifications, weight, and more. Horses are predictable. One of the fundamental tasks of handicapping is to learn which combination of predictors is important in today´s race.

Vulnerable favorites create opportunities for big wins, and being able to recognize flawed favorites and bet accordingly is one of the reasons professional handicappers leave the track winners.

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